Casualty Projections for the U.S. Invasion of Japan

"we shall probably have to kill at least 5 to 10 million Japanese. This might cost us between 1.7 and 4 million casualties including 400,000 to 800,000 killed"

Announcement / Release
around 1945
around 1945
Birth Place
The Pentagon, Virginia, United States of America


In July 1945, the War Department asked Shockley to prepare a report on the question of probable casualties from an invasion of the Japanese mainland. This report influenced the decision for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to force Japan to surrender without an invasion. The key assumption was large-scale participation by civilians in the defense of Japan.

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