The headlines write themselves every time the gallows drop in Tehran. Three men hanged. A flurry of tweets from European foreign ministries. A "deeply concerned" press release from a human rights NGO. Then, silence until the next cycle.
If you think these ritualistic condemnations are slowing the rate of executions in the Islamic Republic, you haven't been paying attention to the last forty years of geopolitical friction. You are viewing the Iranian penal system through a liberal democratic lens that doesn't exist in the halls of the Evin prison.
Western media treats these executions as a sign of a regime "losing control" or "lashing out in desperation." That is the first and most dangerous misconception. The Iranian state isn't losing control; it is performing it. Every time a Western capital screams "barbarism," the hardliners in Tehran get exactly what they want: a clear, violent distinction between their "divine" sovereignty and "decadent" Western interference.
The Sovereignty Trap
We have to stop pretending that human rights "pressure" works on a government that views human rights as a Trojan horse for regime change. To the clerical establishment, every execution is a domestic signal wrapped in a foreign policy statement.
When the news broke about the hanging of Majid Kazemi, Salehi Mirhashemi, and Saeed Yaqoubi—the men linked to the "Isfahan House" case—the West fell into the same predictable rhythm. We focused on the lack of due process, the forced confessions, and the "alarming" escalation.
But for the Iranian judiciary, "due process" is an obstacle to the primary goal of the state: the preservation of the Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist). In their logic, the more the West protests, the more "guilty" the defendants appear to the regime's base. If the Great Satan wants these men to live, the logic goes, they must be essential to the Great Satan's plans.
I have watched diplomats for decades operate under the delusion that if they just find the right combination of sanctions and "sternly worded letters," the hangings will stop. They won't. In fact, history suggests that executions often spike during periods of high diplomatic tension. The gallows are a thermometer of how much the regime feels it needs to assert its internal dominance against external "meddling."
The Myth of the Desperate Regime
The "lazy consensus" suggests that a regime that hangs protesters is a regime on the brink. This is wishful thinking disguised as analysis.
Authoritarian states don't execute because they are weak; they execute because they are willing to pay the reputational cost of stability. Look at the math. In 2023 and 2024, the numbers surged. Did the regime collapse? No. It successfully signaled to the middle class and the fence-sitters that the cost of dissent is a short drop and a sudden stop.
The Western obsession with "raising alarm" actually provides the regime with a free global advertising campaign for its own brutality. Tehran doesn't need to spend money on domestic propaganda when the BBC and CNN will broadcast the consequences of rebellion to every smartphone in Isfahan for free.
The Judicial Theatre of Moharebeh
To understand why your outrage is failing, you have to understand the charge of Moharebeh—enmity against God.
This isn't just a legal category; it’s a theological weapon. When you argue that these men didn't get a "fair trial," you are arguing about the rules of a game the Iranian judiciary isn't playing. They aren't trying to prove a crime; they are identifying an enemy.
The Mechanism of Modern Martyrdom
- The Arrest: High-profile protesters are selected not just for their actions, but for their symbolic value.
- The Confession: Often extracted under duress, these are not meant to hold up in a court of law; they are scripts for a domestic audience to justify the upcoming violence.
- The Sentence: Death, usually by hanging, often from a crane in a public square.
- The Reaction: International outcry, which the state media uses to prove that the "enemies of Islam" are coordinated with foreign powers.
By participating in step four without any actual leverage, the West completes the cycle that validates the regime's narrative.
Sanctions are a Blunt Instrument for a Scalpel Problem
We are told that "targeted sanctions" on judiciary officials will change the calculus. Ask yourself: does a judge in a revolutionary court, who believes he is doing God’s work and has never traveled outside of Mashhad or Qom, care about a frozen bank account in London?
Sanctions on the Iranian economy haven't stopped the enrichment of uranium, and they certainly haven't stopped the hangings. If anything, the resulting economic misery provides the "security" pretext for more crackdowns. When the populace is hungry and angry, the state needs more gallows, not fewer.
The Brutal Reality of "Alarm"
"Raising alarm" is the geopolitical equivalent of "thoughts and prayers." It makes the speaker feel virtuous while the recipient remains unchanged.
If the goal is actually to save lives—not just to signal our own moral superiority—the strategy has to shift from public shaming to private, high-stakes leverage. But the West is currently incapable of this because our domestic politics requires every leader to be seen "taking a stand" publicly.
The Iranian government knows this. They know our attention span is tied to the 24-hour news cycle. They wait for the "alarm" to peak, they carry out the execution, they weather the 48 hours of social media outrage, and then they move on to the next cell block.
The Cost of the Moral High Ground
We must admit a hard truth: the international community’s current approach has become a predictable part of the Iranian execution process. We are the chorus in a tragedy we claim to want to stop.
Every time a diplomat tweets about "Universal Human Rights" in response to an execution in Karaj or Shiraz, they are speaking to their own voters, not the Revolutionary Guard. To the Guard, those words are just the noise of a declining West that lacks the stomach for real confrontation or the subtlety for real negotiation.
If you want to dismantle the gallows, stop providing the soundtrack for them. Stop pretending that your "alarm" is a deterrent. It is a validation.
Stop asking how we can "voice our concern" more loudly. Start asking why we continue to use a tool—public condemnation—that has a forty-year track record of total failure. The Iranian state uses the death penalty to prove it doesn't care what you think. And every time you shout, you prove them right.
The gallows in Iran aren't a sign that the regime is failing. They are a sign that our methods are.
